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The Biden administration is expected to permit the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to grant permission to 12 states, including California, this month to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035. If the move goes ahead, it would be one of the most ambitious U.S. climate policies to date, alongside the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). However, President-elect Donald Trump could revoke this permission once he takes office, which falls in line with his plans to reduce the reach of the IRA and other climate policies. 

The California Air Resources Board approved a law in 2022 requiring all new cars, SUVs and pickup trucks sold in the state to generate zero tailpipe emissions by 2035. This effectively bans the sale of new gasoline cars starting in 2035, although existing gas cars would be permitted to stay on the roads and the purchase of second-hand cars would continue to be allowed. Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington have all announced plans to enforce California’s Advanced Clean Cars II rule and prohibit the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles from 2035. This move falls under Section 177 of the Clean Air Act, which permits states to choose to adopt California’s standards instead of federal requirements without seeking EPA approval. 

The Democrat-majority state of California is often at the forefront of climate policy. In 2022, Democrat Governor Gavin Newsom announced targets including an 85 percent decrease in greenhouse gas emissions, a 94 percent reduction in oil consumption, and the creation of 4 million jobs. In March this year, the state submitted a Climate Action Plan to the EPA, seeking federal funding to support California’s long-term goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2045, as well as its other climate goals. 

The EPA has long allowed California to enact stricter clean air standards than those set by the federal government under the 1970 Clean Air Act to help fight its high air pollution levels. However, California has often caught the eyes of conservative Republican politicians who view its climate efforts as too far-reaching and unrealistic. 

“California has imposed the most ridiculous car regulations anywhere in the world, with mandates to move to all electric cars,” Trump said. “I will terminate that,” he added. 

However, California is expected to appeal any move to revoke the permission, if it is granted. Governor Newsom stated, “California has long led the nation in pioneering climate policies and innovation… Those efforts will continue for years to come.”

Post-presidential election reports suggested that California officials had been working for months on a plan to “Trump proof” the state’s environmental and climate policies, including lawsuits aimed at reaching wide-ranging settlements with industries generating greenhouse gases, and new rules and laws that rely on state authority and would be beyond the reach of the federal government.

Other states that have adopted previous climate plans introduced by California but have not yet announced plans for a ban on the sale of gasoline cars include Colorado, Connecticut, Virginia and Minnesota. There is currently no national ban on the sale of gasoline cars, although the Biden administration announced a target for half of all vehicle sales to be electric by 2030. To support this aim, the government has allocated $5 billion for the development of a nationwide infrastructure of charging stations, as well as introduced higher EV tax credits to drive domestic production.

The Biden administration also introduced new standards for gas-powered vehicles that require automakers to make vehicles more environmentally friendly and decarbonise operations. The government also introduced the Federal Sustainability Plan, which makes it compulsory for government agencies to purchase only zero-emission light-duty vehicles starting in 2027, and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles starting in 2035. 

In addition to opposing California’s ambitious climate policies, Trump stated in October that if he was re-elected as president, no state would be permitted to ban gasoline-powered cars or trucks. Trump also said in August that he planned to end the EV tax credit. “When I'm president, no state in America will be permitted to ban gas-powered cars or trucks, and I guarantee it - no way," Trump said during a Michigan rally. “You're going to make them right here,” he added. 

On 13th December, the U.S. Supreme Court said it would consider whether business groups be permitted to challenge the EPA’s waiver programme for California. The groups, which include fuel producers and sellers, told the court that its intervention was required to prevent the Golden State from effectively setting national policy. “Without this court’s immediate review… California’s unlawful standards will continue to dictate the composition of the nation’s automobile market,” they stated in their petition seeking review. Decisions from both the Supreme Court and the Biden administration will determine the legality of the EPA waivers and will decide whether the gasoline car ban will go ahead in 12 states. 

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com