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The Western news media on the US/Russia relations is almost always so far behind the curve, that it’s a miracle they’re still in the game.

Anyone who follows the issue closely knows that the deal between the US and Russia to end the war in Ukraine has already been struck, the rest is rhetoric. 

Putin knows that the mere mention of money makes Trump salivate, as shown by Netanyahu’s offer to the US of Gaza as a new gilded seaside resort.

Not surprisingly, Putin followed up with an offer of another gilded seaside resort in Crimea, on the Black Sea coastline, favored by Russian oligarchs and Putin himself.

The truth is that Russia has far more to offer than either Israel or Ukraine could ever imagine, including allowing the return of US energy companies to the huge energy reserves in Russia, that they were forced to leave because of US sanctions.  

While Putin’s philosopher friend, Alexander Dugan, maintains that Trump and Putin see eye to eye on traditional values, their connection has nothing to do with values, tradition or otherwise. 

Instead, it’s all about oil. Trump has always been in the pocket of the US oil industry, while Russia is the world’s third-largest producer of fossil fuels. Russia is also the largest block of land in the Arctic, and it is known to hold vast and mostly untapped mineral wealth.

Recall that in his first term in office, he appointed Rex Tillerson, former CEO of ExxonMobil as his choice for Secretary of State.

That would have put him in good stead with the Rockefeller family, who still own a large stake in the giant oil company. It would also have answered Trump’s dream of riding to reelection on the back of big oil, had Tillerson not split on bad terms with the President.Related: Kazakhstan Keeps Exceeding OPEC+ Quota With Record-High Oil Production

Currently, Trump has issued an executive order, opening Alaska Federal Reserves to oil industries, that were formerly banned by the Obama and Biden Administrations.

The world has yet to realize that changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America is not merely word play or symbolism.

The Gulf is a rich reservoir of energy, which both US, in the north, and Mexico, in the south, have exploited for decades. Trump intends to not only own the Panama Canal, Canada, and Greenland, he also intends to own the entire Gulf, Mexico be damned.

Further gifts to big oil include Trump’s all-out assault on green policies, as his Executive Order to end the Environmental Protection Agency clearly illustrated.

Trump's often repeated theme of ‘drill baby drill,’ says it all.

Russia offered a ‘welcome back’ to US oil companies to resume their large-scale work and huge investments in Russia, which they were forced to leave because of US sanctions. Also, Russia has offered the US joint ventures to exploit the Arctic.

In addition, Russia is also offering to joint venture in the development of its own lithium reserves, many times larger than Ukraine’s.

All this in return for recognizing Russia’s conquered territories, while dropping US sanctions against Russia.

Trump has also attempted to negotiate a partial cease-fire between the two warring countries, aimed at halting attacks on their energy facilities, and Black Sea shipping.

If accepted, this would enable both countries, that are world class exporters of agriculture, including grains and fertilizer, to resume exports, that were largely interrupted because of the ongoing combat.

The proposal offers the promise of substantially reduced energy and food prices, while also significantly reducing the rate of world inflation far more than any other issue on the President’s agenda.

Except for one other item. Trump has gone much further than anyone expected, publicly offering a major disarmament program between the two nations, with a proposal to halve the military budgets of both countries. If allowed to proceed, that could result in enormous savings on both sides.

There are widespread suspicions that Trump’s gutting of the US military and CIA leadership by replacing them with far less experience ‘yes men,’ may also be politically suspect. 

It’s well known that the US military and intelligence personnel, along with that of their British and NATO partners, all steeped in cold war ideology, are directly involved in the defense of Ukraine.

It’s hard to believe that their replacement with far less qualified people would not find favor in the Kremlin.

Also on the political agenda, the US wants to breach Russia’s alliance with China, considered to be America’s chief rival. For this author, that seems a much dicier proposition.

For similar economic and political reasons, the US is also offering peace to Iran, which would include dropping sanctions in exchange for a new nuke deal. If sanctions were dropped, Iran could become one of the world’s largest producers of oil and gas.

Sidelining Trump’s European allies, and adding insult to injury, clearly shows Trump’s animosity towards NATO, Russia’s top adversary.

Canceling of the Voice of America broadcast outlet and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, whose programming confronts authoritarianism and promotes democracy, is clearly in the same vein.

This entire scenario will certainly be viewed in Moscow as the largest peace offering ever from any US Administration.

With all this, why wouldn’t Russia agree to end the war, gaining a much larger buffer zone with Ukraine, while annexing some twenty percent of Ukraine’s most productive territory, and adding 5 million new Russian speaking citizens?

As important to Russia is the US recognition of it as an economic partner, along with the dropping of US sanctions.

This will certainly not be Europe’s or Ukraine’s preferred ending to the war. Their demands for security for Ukraine will have to be met, or they will almost certainly refuse to drop their own sanctions on Russia.

But the fact is that Ukraine could never hope to defeat its much larger opponent, even when supplied with the West’s most advanced military technology, communications, and billions in finance.  The proof is on the battlefield.

Russia's strategy has always been to use its larger size to its advantage, as it did against Napoleon and the Nazi armies. Long battlelines severely disadvantage smaller countries, thinning out their defense against a widening battlefield and much larger opponent.

The current battleline is estimated to be some 1,250 miles, the approximate distance between San Francisco and Indianapolis.

As the lines grow, the strategy is aimed at gradually moving to rout an opponent that can no longer defend itself.  In that sense, time is on the Russian side.

Our guess is that Trump/Putin negotiated end to the war will likely have to be accepted by the West, however reluctantly, because the benefits to the world, in terms of loss of life, treasure, and further destruction far outweigh its continuation.

By Robert Berke for Oilprice.com