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U.S.-Venezuela tensions are again rippling through energy and security markets, prompting President Donald Trump to rule out immediate military strikes while maintaining a buildup of American naval assets in the Caribbean. 

His comments followed reports of U.S. patrols and maritime interdictions targeting narcotics routes linked to Caracas, a campaign that has drawn condemnation from Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and prompted renewed appeals to the U.N. Security Council. 

Newsweek reported that Washington’s military posture remains unchanged despite the president’s denial of active strike plans.

The escalation comes as Venezuela’s oil industry shows signs of revival. The country’s crude exports topped 1.09 million barrels per day in September, the highest level since early 2020, according to Reuters. Those shipments have become increasingly important for Chinese and Indian refiners amid sanctions on Russia and tight heavy-crude supply elsewhere. Any disruption caused by new U.S. enforcement actions could once again squeeze global heavy-sour markets.

Gulf Coast refiners that previously depended on Venezuelan barrels have already turned to heavier grades from the Middle East and from Latin America, including ramping purchases from Guyana’s offshore Stabroek field, as detailed by Reuters. That shift has intertwined the Venezuelan crisis with Guyana’s emergence as one of the Western Hemisphere’s fastest-growing oil producers.

At the same time, Caracas continues to dispute maritime boundaries with Georgetown in waters adjacent to Exxon Mobil’s Stabroek block offshore Guyana. This flashpoint could take on greater significance if military pressure from Washington intensifies.  

Analysts warn that any deterioration in Venezuelan stability or maritime security could slow regional project timelines and raise insurance costs across northern South America, undermining one of the few non-OPEC growth corridors now underpinning future global supply.

Venezuela has also demanded clarification from ExxonMobil and Trinidad and Tobago over a new gas-exploration agreement signed this week, arguing that parts of the area under review overlap with maritime zones claimed by Caracas. Venezuela’s foreign ministry formally requested documentation from Port of Spain outlining the project boundaries and legal framework. 

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com